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"Principle of Uncertain Future" in Use
Science for Business
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Mission
Development and use of the new philosophy of uncertanty.
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What do we do?
We solve paradoxes.
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How?
Analysis of plans, future risks, consumers behavior, consumer psyhology.
Independent evaluation and audit of new projects.
Endorsements of plans or recommendations for modifications and corrections (if nessesary).
Consulting.
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When?
In complex, hard and high-priced cases when possible losses can be too high to neglect
an outside independent analysis and audit.
In the cases when testing is impossible,
In the cases when existing theories cannot give the answer.
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For Whom?
For Venture Funds, Investment Banks, Big Corporations, Top Universities
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Why?
Due to proprietary know-how and methodology, scientific competence and experience.
See also the page:
"Four reasons why our project will be a successful one"
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What have we done?
The "Principle" has solved a number of the well-known paradoxes:
The first aspect of the "Principle" has solved the Ellsber paradox
and the paradox of incomplete preferences.
The second aspect of the "Principle" has solved the Allais paradox
and the paradoxes of
underweighting of high probabilities,
overweighting of low probabilities,
risk aversion, loss aversion, the equity premium puzzle,
opposite underweighting/overweighting of gains and losses,
four-fold pattern paradox, etc.
The author of the "Principle" has founded a scientific Internet community
Economics. ... Russian-Speaking Scientists
to consider and discuss the "Principle" and other items.
At present the community counts more than 40,000 members (see the citation).
More then 50 experts, referees of Russian and international conferences and journals
and the members of the community
confirmed
the correctness
of the "Principle."
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In more detail
Giving another point of view on business model, regarding of
unique proprietary methodology,based on 15-years scientific research:
plan correction, risk minimization, customer behavour clarification.
Example
Suppose, there is a project which cost is more than $10,000,000. The project cannot be tested in the practice.
For example, this can be the process of building of a new factory in a new region.
Step 1.
We inform potential purchasers about we are ready to consider offers to acquaint us with the plan of their project (which cost is more than $10,000,000) for the subsequent independent evaluation (audit) by means of newest scientific ideas, results and know-how.
We may acquaint us for the prepayment of, say, $1,000 (less than 0.01% of the cost of the project).
This symbolic prepayment needs to test the minimal paying capacity of a purchaser and its intention to pay.
Step 2*.
We obtain an offer to make the prepayment of $1,000 to acquaint us with the plan of a project.
We acquaint us preliminary with the project, plan and purchaser.
If the project, plan and purchaser seem to be appropriate to our capabilities, situation and prospects, then we write we accept an offer and we agree to send some additional (*see Step 3) information about our project and then obtain:
- the prepayment,
- some public documents about the project and plan (of purchaser’s choice) and
- the questions of the purchaser.
Step 3.
We obtain the prepayment and acquaint us preliminary with the documents obtained.
If we are sure we can really help the purchaser then we propose to conclude the contract including:
- our liability to prepare an evaluation (audit) of the plan and, maybe, some suggestions and forecasts
- the prepayment of not more than, say, $4,000 (totally less than 0.05% of the cost of the project)
- our carried interest of about 1% – 3% of the profit of using of our suggestions (after evaluating this profit) or not less than simply, say, $20,000 during the next month after sending of our suggestions.
- purchaser’s liability to public announcement of our suggestions and forecasts if they will come true or be realized, but will be not used by the purchaser.
- our right and duty (*see our duties in Step 2) to cite such public announcements and write the amounts of all obtained prepayments and payments during some last years to those potential purchasers whose offers to make the prepayment of $1,000 we have accepted.
Step 4.
We perform the contract.
If the purchaser offers to us taking part in detailing and realization of our suggestions, then we conclude the additional contract.
Top
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Team Members:
Tatyana Kharina (Lead)
Alexander Harin
Alex Kharin
Savio Fernandez
Andrey Nikiforov
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Mentors:
Alan Martello
Facilitator, Mentor, Entrepreneur
University of Pittsburgh
Blue Lotus LLC
Sergio Gugel
Business
Development
Digital Marketing
Vlad Kostanyan
www.Chatroulette.com
Vice President
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Principle of Uncertain Future
Second Aspect
Ideal or real economics?
Utility Theory Problems & Paradoxes
Solution of Utility Theory Problems & Paradoxes
Exact forecasting. Is it possible?
Are people rational?
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