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New Approach
The idea of the approach
Particular consideration of (hidden) uncertainties (noises, fluctuations, measurements' errors, etc.)
Principle of Uncertain Future (simplified)
The principle
The probability of a future event contains uncertainty.
1. The first consequence of the principle
Suppose we plan to test the probability value, which is equal to 99%. Suppose the probability uncertainty value is equal to 5%. Then, evidently, the real mean value of probability cannot be as high as 99%. Generally, High probabilities will decrease.
Phigh real < Phigh planned
Analogously, but considering the second consequence of the principle (see below), Low probabilities can increase.
Plow real possible > Plow planned
2. The second consequence of the principle
The total probability of unforeseen future events is more than 0%
Σ Punforeseen real > 0%
Hence, The present total probability of future events is less than 100%
Σ Pplanned < 100%
or The present probability system of future events is incomplete. Top
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Isaac Newton: "If I have seen further it is by standing on ye sholders of Giants." |
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