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Problem
The chance of such a radically new as the "Principle of Uncertain Future,"
but “right” theory is less than, say, 1/100,000
(nobody of much more than 100,000 scientists in the world has not created
such a theory during last decades (there are more than 40,000 economists
(see
RePEc (Research Papers in Economics
)).
Therefore, this positive chance can be neglected and the risk is overwhelming.
Why can this project be a successful one, instead of the above objection?
There are, at least four reasons to its future success:
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Four reasons
why our project will be a successful one
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1. Reliability
The “Principle of Uncertain Future” was created (in draft) more than 15 years ago (in 1998).
During these more than 15 years, the author of the "Principle"
has reported and published more than 50 various reports and articles devoted to it.
He has discussed it with more than 50 scientists and engineers.
Nobody of them (and of referees of the reports and articles) has disproved it.
The most strong criticism was: “It is obvious.”
In addition, the author of the "Principle" is a graduate of MIPT (Phystech).
IMHO, the 15-years self-testing of a graduate of MIPT merits something as well.
Therefore, in the first approximation one may evaluate the probability
of an essential error as less than, say, 1/20=5%.
Therefore, in the first approximation one may consider this Principle as a rather reliable (>95%) one.
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2. Easy testability
The “Principle of Uncertain Future” is so clear and obvious
that it needs no special knowledge and skills
(except those of a graduate of a technical institute) to test it.
Indeed,
The “Principle of Uncertain Future” has the two aspects.
The first aspect can be called shortly as “Unforeseen events.” It was invented to solve the Ellsberg paradox (and similar ones).
The second aspect can be called shortly as “Forbidden zones.” It was invented to solve the Allais paradox (and similar ones).
So. let us test these two aspects:
1. Unforeseen events.
There are unforeseen events those can destroy plans.
I hope, this is obvious.
If not, then one can suppose that to foreseen all essential events we must spend too much resources.
Usually, this is unacceptable from the economical point of view.
2. “Forbidden zones” for the mean values due to noises.
Suppose, there is a device which can vibrate. The device has a rigid surface.
Suppose, there is an external rigid wall.
When the device does not vibrate then the mean position of some point of its rigid surface CAN coincide with the external rigid wall.
When the device is vibrating then the mean position of the point of its rigid surface CANNOT coincide with the external rigid wall.
So, there will be a “forbidden zone” for the mean position of the point near the external rigid wall.
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3. Low price and investments
3.1. Low price
- Can the price of a plan or of an evaluation (audit) of a plan be low?
- No.
- ??
- We shall not prepare the whole plan or the whole evaluation.
We shall prepare only a particular (specific) evaluation of an existing plan
from the point of view of the new
(and unknown to the overwhelming majority of experts) scientific results, ideas and know-how.
This specific evaluation will not need too much money.
Example
Suppose, there is a project which cost is more than $10,000,000. The project cannot be tested in the practice.
For example, this can be the process of building of a new factory in a new region.
Step 1.
We inform potential purchasers about we are ready to consider offers to acquaint us with the plan of their project (which cost is more than $10,000,000) for the subsequent independent evaluation (audit) by means of newest scientific ideas, results and know-how.
We may acquaint us for the prepayment of, say, $1,000 (less than 0.01% of the cost of the project).
This symbolic prepayment needs to test the minimal paying capacity of a purchaser and its intention to pay.
Step 2*.
We obtain an offer to make the prepayment of $1,000 to acquaint us with the plan of a project.
We acquaint us preliminary with the project, plan and purchaser.
If the project, plan and purchaser seem to be appropriate to our capabilities, situation and prospects, then we write we accept an offer and we agree to send some additional (*see Step 3) information about our project and then obtain:
- the prepayment,
- some public documents about the project and plan (of purchaser’s choice) and
- the questions of the purchaser.
Step 3.
We obtain the prepayment and acquaint us preliminary with the documents obtained.
If we are sure we can really help the purchaser then we propose to conclude the contract including:
- our liability to prepare an evaluation (audit) of the plan and, maybe, some suggestions and forecasts
- the prepayment of not more than, say, $4,000 (totally less than 0.05% of the cost of the project)
- our carried interest of about 1% – 3% of the profit of using of our suggestions (after evaluating this profit) or not less than simply, say, $20,000 during the next month after sending of our suggestions.
- purchaser’s liability to public announcement of our suggestions and forecasts if they will come true or be realized, but will be not used by the purchaser.
- our right and duty (*see our duties in Step 2) to cite such public announcements and write the amounts of all obtained prepayments and payments during some last years to those potential purchasers whose offers to make the prepayment of $1,000 we have accepted.
Step 4.
We perform the contract.
If the purchaser offers to us taking part in detailing and realization of our suggestions, then we conclude the additional contract.
3.2. Low investments
The usual investments can be of the order of $1,000,000.
The investments in our project are needed only for creation of a firm,
which has the rights to accept and pay money and to pay government and municipal taxes.
Therefore, the investments in our project may be of the order of $10,000 or some tens of thousand dollars.
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4. No hurry
Our project need not be profitable or, even, viable “here and now.”
We can wait as long as it needs.
Moreover,
It’s of a very little sense to develop an activity when we need to prove
the truthfulness and correctness of the basic Principle, which we shall use.
Our work will be incomparably more easy, when this basic Principle will be widely proven and acknowledged.
The time when the Principle will be acknowledged but not widely
understood in detail can be named as the “golden time” to use the Principle in business.
At this “golden time,” author's children will use
both my published ideas, results, etc. and unpublished know-how, methodology, ideas, results, etc.
The partners of the children will also take part in the project and make money.
So, the goal of the present time is not to be profitable or viable “here and now.”
The goal of the present time and near future is to prepare the project and team
to this “golden time” to use the Principle in business.
The goal of the “golden time” will be to make profit of this “golden time”
and to develop the project from a specific start-up project to a middle-scale
(or, maybe, large-scale) universal company.
Top
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Team Members:
Tatyana Kharina (Lead)
Alexander Harin
Alex Kharin
Savio Fernandez
Andrey Nikiforov
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Mentors:
Alan Martello
Facilitator, Mentor, Entrepreneur
University of Pittsburgh
Blue Lotus LLC
Sergio Gugel
Business
Development
Digital Marketing
Vlad Kostanyan
www.Chatroulette.com
Vice President
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Principle of Uncertain Future
Second Aspect
Ideal or real economics?
Utility Theory Problems & Paradoxes
Solution of Utility Theory Problems & Paradoxes
Exact forecasting. Is it possible?
Are people rational?
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